[poll] 2014-2015 Annual Snow Pool
Benny ⭐, Sat Oct 18 2014, 10:36PM



It's that time again! The annual SCM snow pool has begun!

Think you're a better forecaster than me? Here's your chance to prove it! We will once again be taking your best guesstamate for our total snowfall received in the Big Bear Valley through this winter season (Oct 2014-May 2015).

I will do the official measurements & record them on Bensweather.com (This will be an average across the whole Valley).

Enter your predictions here in inches, if that number is already taken, you'll need to guess again. Predictions will be on a first come first served basis.

Looking for the closest guess to our total annual snowfall without going over. Whoever is closest or right on will win themselves a $50.00 Amazon gift card! Courtesy SCM!

You may post your entries in this thread now through November 15th 2014.
I will keep a running tally and update as often as I can with the contest ending April 30th ish.

(HINT) The average annual snowfall for the Big bear Valley is 62.1"
Last year, which was one of our driest on record, we only received 29". With us currently under the influence of a weak El Nino, "statistically" precipitation totals should be slightly above average; but your guess is as good as mine, so guess away!

Once your prediction has been recorded I'll put a strike through it; have a safe winter and good luck!

Here's a running tally of the predictions thus far. UPDATED NOV 18th 2014

Inches Username
Inches Username
31 Debbie's Vern
38 Delj
45 SpiritNative58
49 S DGrandma
50 SocalSnowMan
62 Mountia nlvr
63 Cornbread
65 Around the Lake
66 Surfy
67 NShore.Allen
68 OB L
69 Sugarloaf Gal
70 Ernest T. Bass
72 Squirrely
75 Campingmom
76 Mtn.goat John
77 David (KJ6PYV)
79 Stintchik
80 DD
82 shovelheadke vin
83 Debbie Doodah
84 Rock
85 KK
86 Gutter Duster
90 ChattieKathie
95 BBDwelle r
96 Chrissy
100 mel
105 Snowmama
1 11 Silver
120 Van

Re: [poll] 2014-2015 Annual Snow Pool
Lumber Jill, Sat Oct 18 2014, 10:48PM

82"!

Re: [poll] 2014-2015 Annual Snow Pool
Benny ⭐, Sat Oct 18 2014, 10:50PM



I won't be playin, but if I were guessin, I'd also be right in this ball park... Probably 80" for me. (but maybe that's just more hopeful!)

Gotcha down.

Re: [poll] 2014-2015 Annual Snow Pool
Craig ⭐, Sat Oct 18 2014, 10:56PM

Even though my guess does not count (meaning my guess is still up for grabs), I would say 75".

Re: [poll] 2014-2015 Annual Snow Pool
Lumber Jill, Sat Oct 18 2014, 10:58PM

Weeeeee...we're all actually hopin' for lotsa snow!

Re: [poll] 2014-2015 Annual Snow Pool
Mountainlvr, Sat Oct 18 2014, 11:09PM

62

Re: [poll] 2014-2015 Annual Snow Pool
Squirrely, Sat Oct 18 2014, 11:53PM

72"

Re: [poll] 2014-2015 Annual Snow Pool
Ernest T. Bass, Sun Oct 19 2014, 08:05AM

As the winner of last years and Thanks again Craig and Benny for the great prize, life time member ship (and something else??)

My guess is....................70" !skier

Re: [poll] 2014-2015 Annual Snow Pool
KK, Sun Oct 19 2014, 08:10AM

85"

Re: [poll] 2014-2015 Annual Snow Pool
Deb Doodah, Sun Oct 19 2014, 08:51AM

83

Re: [poll] 2014-2015 Annual Snow Pool
Sugarloaf Gal, Sun Oct 19 2014, 09:18AM

My guess is 69. I know you are the best forcaster Benny!

Re: [poll] 2014-2015 Annual Snow Pool
Silver, Sun Oct 19 2014, 11:14AM

111

Eat that Mammoth.

Re: [poll] 2014-2015 Annual Snow Pool
Chrissy, Sun Oct 19 2014, 11:42AM

I would say..... 96"

Re: [poll] 2014-2015 Annual Snow Pool
NShore.Allen, Sun Oct 19 2014, 11:50AM

67" is my guess.

Re: [poll] 2014-2015 Annual Snow Pool
David (KJ6PYV), Sun Oct 19 2014, 02:27PM

My guess is 77"

Re: [poll] 2014-2015 Annual Snow Pool
Mtngoat John⭐, Sun Oct 19 2014, 02:39PM

76" Worked so well for me last year.

Re: [poll] 2014-2015 Annual Snow Pool
Deb Doodah, Sun Oct 19 2014, 03:08PM

My hubby Vern is a pessimist....He votes for 31"

I think he is just afraid he will have to shovel it.

Re: [poll] 2014-2015 Annual Snow Pool
Mtngoat John⭐, Sun Oct 19 2014, 03:28PM


It did say 76", but I guess Benny didn't like my guess. Wanna try again? When you line something out you really line it out!

Re: [poll] 2014-2015 Annual Snow Pool
Benny ⭐, Sun Oct 19 2014, 03:56PM


What in heavens are you talking about?

Re: [poll] 2014-2015 Annual Snow Pool
©ammy, Sun Oct 19 2014, 04:19PM

John - did you see this part from Ben's initial post?




Re: [poll] 2014-2015 Annual Snow Pool
©ammy, Sun Oct 19 2014, 04:24PM


Me too, but I'm gonna say 94" just like I was hoping for last year.

Re: [poll] 2014-2015 Annual Snow Pool
Mtngoat John⭐, Sun Oct 19 2014, 05:36PM


Uhm, yea. His editing skills are good, my hats off to him.

Re: [poll] 2014-2015 Annual Snow Pool
shovelheadkevin, Sun Oct 19 2014, 05:43PM

OK...so my 77" was taken.

My next prognostication(s) is/are, in order of preference:
82"
84"
96"

Personally, I hope the mtn gets 188".


Re: [poll] 2014-2015 Annual Snow Pool
Benny ⭐, Sun Oct 19 2014, 06:31PM



I think John's lost it!


Re: [poll] 2014-2015 Annual Snow Pool
Benny ⭐, Sun Oct 19 2014, 06:33PM


Got ya for 82!

Re: [poll] 2014-2015 Annual Snow Pool
Benny ⭐, Sun Oct 19 2014, 08:04PM

I'll keep the updated list of predictions on page 1. [Click Here]

Re: [poll] 2014-2015 Annual Snow Pool
Cornbread, Mon Oct 20 2014, 05:05AM

I am gonna go with 63 inches this year.

Re: [poll] 2014-2015 Annual Snow Pool
Mtngoat John⭐, Mon Oct 20 2014, 05:56AM


Thanks for the help.

Re: [poll] 2014-2015 Annual Snow Pool
ROCK, Mon Oct 20 2014, 06:10AM

84

Re: [poll] 2014-2015 Annual Snow Pool
melvin, Mon Oct 20 2014, 10:14AM

100

Re: [poll] 2014-2015 Annual Snow Pool
Stuntchik, Mon Oct 20 2014, 12:37PM

79

Re: [poll] 2014-2015 Annual Snow Pool
dd, Mon Oct 20 2014, 03:14PM

80

Re: [poll] 2014-2015 Annual Snow Pool
SDGrandma, Tue Oct 21 2014, 12:40PM

In order of "Hope", "Pray" "Wish" Dream" 49, 64, 97, 107

Re: [poll] 2014-2015 Annual Snow Pool
Around The Lake, Tue Oct 21 2014, 04:39PM

65.7 is my thinking

Re: [poll] 2014-2015 Annual Snow Pool
Benny ⭐, Tue Oct 21 2014, 04:59PM


Leave it to Todd to complicate the snow pool.

So 65.7 rounded is 66, so do you want 65 or 66? No halvsies

Re: [poll] 2014-2015 Annual Snow Pool
Benny ⭐, Tue Oct 21 2014, 04:59PM


Ok, got ya down for 49.

Re: [poll] 2014-2015 Annual Snow Pool
surfy, Wed Oct 22 2014, 03:27PM

66"

Re: [poll] 2014-2015 Annual Snow Pool
Around The Lake, Wed Oct 22 2014, 05:40PM

Ok I was just thinking season average numbers . So I will take 65.
As surfy just took 66 . Smile

Re: [poll] 2014-2015 Annual Snow Pool
Hooky Bobber, Sat Oct 25 2014, 04:28PM

95.5 KLOS Rock and Roll

Re: [poll] 2014-2015 Annual Snow Pool
Benny ⭐, Tue Oct 28 2014, 04:51PM


I'm sorry, was 95 inches your guess?

Re: [poll] 2014-2015 Annual Snow Pool
Hooky Bobber, Wed Oct 29 2014, 09:02AM




please 95 inches

Re: [poll] 2014-2015 Annual Snow Pool
Benny ⭐, Sat Nov 01 2014, 09:11PM

Prediction list has been updated! [Click Here]

Re: [poll] 2014-2015 Annual Snow Pool
Socalman, Sun Nov 02 2014, 08:13AM

I am prognosticating 51 inches, but hoping for a great deal more!

Re: [poll] 2014-2015 Annual Snow Pool
Gutter Duster, Thu Nov 06 2014, 06:34PM

I want 86 inches

Re: [poll] 2014-2015 Annual Snow Pool
snowmama, Thu Nov 06 2014, 07:11PM

I think El Nino will help us.. 105

Re: [poll] 2014-2015 Annual Snow Pool
echofox, Thu Nov 06 2014, 07:34PM

56"

Re: [poll] 2014-2015 Annual Snow Pool
snowmama, Thu Nov 06 2014, 07:56PM

i said 105 but don't see it on there


Re: [poll] 2014-2015 Annual Snow Pool
Craig ⭐, Thu Nov 06 2014, 08:18PM

Benny is in charge of keeping the running list updated... No worries Snowmama, your guess is on here and will be updated on the master list soon! And Echofox, you can't submit two guesses..

Re: [poll] 2014-2015 Annual Snow Pool
OBL, Thu Nov 06 2014, 08:19PM

68

Re: [poll] 2014-2015 Annual Snow Pool
Delj, Sat Nov 08 2014, 11:34PM

El Nino is fading!! My dry winter guess is 38"

Re: [poll] 2014-2015 Annual Snow Pool
Benny ⭐, Sat Nov 08 2014, 11:51PM



Not fading exactly... just hasn't fully materialized yet, but there's really no doubt we ARE already seeing the signs & effects of a weak El Nino; such as above normal hurricanes and typhoons in the Pacific this season and below average in the Atlantic, warm ocean waters off our coast, not too often we hit the mid 70's, etc. Here's the latest discussion. I'll update the Snow Pool Sunday!

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
6 November 2014

ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Watch

Synopsis: There is a 58% chance of El Niño during the Northern Hemisphere winter, which is favored to last into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2015.

During October 2014, above-average sea surface temperatures (SST) increased slightly across the eastern half of the equatorial Pacific (Fig. 1). The weekly Niño indices were between +0.6oC (Niño-3.4 and Niño-1+2) and +0.9oC (Niño-3) at the end of the month (Fig. 2). Subsurface heat content anomalies (averaged between 180o-100oW) were largely unchanged (Fig. 3) even as a new downwelling Kelvin wave increased temperatures at depth in the central Pacific (Fig. 4). The monthly equatorial low-level winds were near average, although anomalous westerlies continued to emerge on occasion. Upper-level winds were also mostly average across the Pacific. The Southern Oscillation Index continued to be negative, accompanied by mostly average rainfall near the Date Line and suppressed rainfall over Indonesia (Fig. 5). Overall, several features across the tropical Pacific are characteristic of borderline El Niño conditions, but collectively, the combined atmosphere and oceanic state remains ENSO-neutral.

Similar to last month, most models predict El Niño to develop during October-December 2014 and to continue into early 2015 (Fig. 6). However, the ongoing lack of clear atmosphere-ocean coupling and the latest NCEP CFSv2 model forecast (Fig. 7) have reduced confidence that El Niño will fully materialize (at least five overlapping consecutive 3-month values of the Niño-3.4 index at or greater than 0.5oC). If El Niño does emerge, the forecaster consensus favors a weak event. In summary, there is a 58% chance of El Niño during the Northern Hemisphere winter, which is favored to last into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2015 (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome).

This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Forecasts are also updated monthly in the Forecast Forum of CPC's Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 6 November 2014. To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to: ncep.list.enso-update©noaa.gov.



Re: [poll] 2014-2015 Annual Snow Pool
Benny ⭐, Mon Nov 10 2014, 05:52PM

Don't forget, you only have a few more days to get your snowfall forecasts in, as I'll stop taking entries this Saturday, Nov 15th. And it looks like I timed it just right as we could get into en extended period of cold and unsettled weather next week, possibly into the following week as well. While it's too early to get overly excited, I just watched some of the latest model runs and it looks like we'll get pounded pretty good next Wednesday onward, could be significant rain AND yes, snow! It's not too often I hop on this bandwagon so early unless it looks pretty solid we'll see something, so get ready, winter's comin early!

Here's the updated snowpool, please let me know if I goofed or missed someone.

Inches ~ Username
31 Debbie's Vern
38 Delj
45 SpiritNative58
49 S DGrandma
50 SocalSnowMan
62 Mountia nlvr
63 Cornbread
65 Around the Lake
66 Surfy
67 NShore.Allen
68 OB L
69 Sugarloaf Gal
70 Ernest T. Bass
72 Squirrely
75 Campingmom
76 Mtn.goat John
77 David (KJ6PYV)
79 Stintchik
80 DD
82 shovelheadke vin
83 Debbie Doodah
84 Rock
85 KK
86 Gutter Duster
90 ChattieKathie
95 BBDwelle r
96 Chrissy
100 mel
105 Snowmama
1 11 Silver
120 Van

Re: [poll] 2014-2015 Annual Snow Pool
Van, Mon Nov 10 2014, 06:17PM

I'm gonna say 120 inches

Re: [poll] 2014-2015 Annual Snow Pool
campingmom, Tue Nov 11 2014, 06:38PM

I'm in at 75.

Re: [poll] 2014-2015 Annual Snow Pool
ChattieKathie, Fri Nov 14 2014, 10:47AM

Hi! Let it snow! 90"

Re: [poll] 2014-2015 Annual Snow Pool
Benny ⭐, Sat Nov 15 2014, 07:02PM

Just a quick reminder, today is the last day for entries on our snowpool, will take them through this weekend, but get your entries in if you haven't already and good luck!

Re: [poll] 2014-2015 Annual Snow Pool
Spiritnative58, Sat Nov 15 2014, 10:56PM

My guess is 44.5 inches of snow this season I hope!)

Re: [poll] 2014-2015 Annual Snow Pool
Benny ⭐, Sun Nov 16 2014, 03:26AM



No halvsies, 44" or 45"?

Re: [poll] 2014-2015 Annual Snow Pool
Around The Lake, Sun Nov 16 2014, 08:54AM

I would like to support Van on his optimist out look of 120" if he is correct it will be "a Mammoth Winter" smile

Re: [poll] 2014-2015 Annual Snow Pool
Benny ⭐, Tue Nov 18 2014, 05:27PM

The final predictions have been cast, now we'll sit back and wait to see what falls. Good luck to all who entered, let's hope for a great winter!

If by chance I missed someone or you want to get in a last minute guess, just shoot me a PM.

Re: [poll] 2014-2015 Annual Snow Pool
SCM ALERT🚨, Mon Apr 06 2015, 08:49PM

Well, this seasons snow pool is coming to a close here soon... Once again it looks like Mother Nature foiled us.. We will see what happens by April 30th (the official end date for the snow pool). I was hoping that Van would win!

Re: [poll] 2014-2015 Annual Snow Pool
Delj, Fri Jun 12 2015, 08:51AM

According to the first paragraph of the first post on this thread, Benny says "through this winter season (Oct 2014-May 2015)". That says that October and May are included in the winter season.

When will the prize be awarded?

Re: [poll] 2014-2015 Annual Snow Pool
Craig ⭐, Sat Jun 13 2015, 02:18AM

Congrats Del! Looks like you are the 2014-2015 snow pool winner!!! You will be receiving your prize via email in the next couple of days. Thanks to everyone for playing! Lets hope we get a lot more snow during the 2015-2016 season!

Re: [poll] 2014-2015 Annual Snow Pool
Mtngoat John⭐, Sat Jun 13 2015, 08:19AM

Craig just exactly how do you email a new car?

Re: [poll] 2014-2015 Annual Snow Pool
Delj, Sat Jun 13 2015, 07:20PM

More snow is coming this winter...just listen to Ben. I certainly won't predict the same low snowfall, not with El Nino acting up.

Re: [poll] 2014-2015 Annual Snow Pool
Benny ⭐, Wed Oct 28 2015, 07:59PM

2015/16 Snowpool is underway in the Weather thread. Have fun!

[Click Here]


Re: [poll] 2014-2015 Annual Snow Pool
blank, Mon Jan 25 2016, 10:23AM

.