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Socalmountains.com :: Forums :: WEATHER DISCUSSION
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[poll] 2018/2019 SCM Snow Pool

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SSJ2012
Wed Feb 06 2019, 08:49PM
Registered Member #13817
Joined: Fri Jan 06 2017, 06:34PM
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Posts: 267
We’re doing this in inches!?!? Thought it was metric after last year!!!
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Benny ⭐
Wed Feb 06 2019, 08:58PM


Joined: Fri Aug 18 2006, 05:54PM
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Posts: 10770
SSJ2012 wrote ...

We’re doing this in inches!?!? Thought it was metric after last year!!!


Or centimeters!

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Fri Mar 01 2019, 05:30PM

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Joined: Wed Dec 26 2007, 08:50PM
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Posts: 3054
Snow Pool Status Update
Looks like these are the folks still in the running!

68 MtnBluebird
69 Tibia w6ajo
70 NShore.Allen
71 Around The Lake
72 MtMan
73 SDGrandma
74 Socal man
75 IDKnothin
76 doo·hick·ey
77 Hank
78 MrOwl
79 Charles
80 Sissyk
81 USFS 1964
82 Canvas Man
83 BaughHumbug
84 Desert Steve
85 SSJ2012
86 Between Stars
87 kof218
88 Wave Slider
89 HBadger
91 louisae
92 mam abear001
93 Billboy
94 BusterBrown
96 melvin
99 Polar Orbit
100 Quixotic1forU
101 bbcmike
102 ButlerPeakFire
103 Mauluch
109 Silver
125 ChattieKathie
144 Mount ainlvr
186 Skyline Drive

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Polar Orbit
Fri Mar 01 2019, 05:43PM
Registered Member #14051
Joined: Thu Mar 16 2017, 06:32PM
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Posts: 164
If all the rain had been snow, there would only be three left.
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Benny ⭐
Fri Mar 01 2019, 07:33PM


Joined: Fri Aug 18 2006, 05:54PM
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Posts: 10770
Which rain? When we got the 10" at the dam? It would likely have been more like 5 feet just from that one storm. Snow can't fall as fast as rain, so when the NWS calls for a qpf say of 1" and we're expecting snow, then we'll likely pick up around a half foot.

But then you have all the other variables like moisture content for one. Our snow usually falls at a 8:1 ratio (very wet), but that last colder storm was closer to 15:1.

So the old saying 1 inch or rain equals 1 foot of snow is incorrect, technically 1 inch of rain will equal 10 inches of snow, but mileage varies!

Polar Orbit wrote ...

If all the rain had been snow, there would only be three left.



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Polar Orbit
Fri Mar 01 2019, 08:38PM
Registered Member #14051
Joined: Thu Mar 16 2017, 06:32PM
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Posts: 164
As you pointed out, 5 feet is 60 inches, added to 68 inches is 128 inches, leaving two pickers. Drop the rain/snow numbers for wet snow, and I might still in contention at 99.
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NShore.Allen
Fri Mar 01 2019, 08:43PM

wanna be UTH
Registered Member #4616
Joined: Sat Jul 28 2012, 04:37PM
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Posts: 2240
I recall the Kuchera ratio. What is better for our conditions?

A smile is a curve that can set things a lot of things straight
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Benny ⭐
Fri Mar 01 2019, 09:20PM


Joined: Fri Aug 18 2006, 05:54PM
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Posts: 10770
Kuchera ratio could be applicable for our conditions, taking into account the generally warmer temps down here at the surface in our climate to calculate accumulation forecasts. Then again, with kuchera it's looking at temps in the lower half of the atmosphere, and given our altitude up from sea level, I s'pose that could confuse that theory/forecast.

That's trying to get down a lot more granular than we we forecast, hence the broad brush forecasts, 4-8"+, 6-12" etc.

If we could get the snowfall forecast down to..."tomorrow we'll have 3" of snow" that'd be awesome. But atmospheric conditions aside, there's too many other variables with our microclimate in SoCal. Maybe in the midwest when you have a more traditional cold front sweeping through, but the only thing predictable about our weather is its un-predictability!

I'm not exactly sure where Polar Orbit went with his statement, it's incomplete, or in Orbit as the name suggests.

PO, you originally stated "If all the rain had been snow, there would only be three left."

All what rain and three what? Our big rainstorm back in early-mid Feb?

Three feet of snow left on the ground if we received 5 feet with that storm?

Or three feet left if we received 128" of snow for the season?

Last month we received over 40" of snow, so for argument sake let's say 4 feet, much of which has already melted.

Maybe you can elaborate on your little algorithm you have going there?

This thread is for the snowpool, how much snow has fallen, not our snowpack.

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MrOwl
Sat Mar 02 2019, 05:56AM

Registered Member #13568
Joined: Sun Oct 23 2016, 01:54PM
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Posts: 1430
I think Polar meant 3 people would be left in the snow pool???

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Benny ⭐
Sat Mar 02 2019, 07:19AM


Joined: Fri Aug 18 2006, 05:54PM
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Posts: 10770
MrOwl wrote ...

I think Polar meant 3 people would be left in the snow pool???



Hmmm, that could be, I think I may have overthunk this one.

Hence pickers I s'pose. Good luck to all the pickers, pick a winner!

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